Nell’ultimo numero dello Arab Reform Bulletin – il bollettino sul mondo arabo del Carnegie Endowment for Peace – c’è un’analisi su Fatah e sul sesto congresso, il fantomatico sesto congresso che sembra come Godot, per il partito nazionalista palestinese. Di Hossam Ezzedine.
Qual è la pace che Netanyahu vorrebbe siglare con i palestinesi? Su quali basi? Su quali confini? Lo scenario sarà chiaro a giugno, quando Barack Obama incontrerà Netanyahu e Mahmoud Abbas per capire quale spazio di azione ci sia. Intanto, però, qualcosa si può arguire. Per esempio, c’è un rapporto del Reut Institute, un think tank israeliano fondato a Tel Aviv nel 2004, che definisce la sua visione quella del “sionismo del 21mo secolo: “The vision that drives the Reut Institute is one of a secure State of Israel, in Eretz Yisrael, serving as the center of the Jewish world. Its Jewishness synergizes with its democratic values and prosperity, as well as with its role as a leader among the family of nations”.
Visione di parte, dunque. Reut Institute, col suo studio, già chiarisce alcuni punti fermi. E lo si evince già dal titolo del rapporto: Reassessment of the Israeli Palestinian Political Process: Build a Palestinian State in the West Bank. Il rapporto dice infatti che, ora, la situazione vede Hamas tutto sommato riconosciuta dalla comunità internazionale nel suo controllo di Gaza, e un’Autorità Nazionale a Ramallah che si sta consolidando. E siccome la soluzione dei due stati è considerata inevitabile anche dal Reut Institute per conservare il carattere ebraico di Israele, conviene a questo punto cominciare dalla Cisgiordania. Stato palestinese, dunque, ma solo in Cisgiordania, con confini provvisori.
Le conclusioni del Reut Institute, insomma, sono queste:
The principle of two states for two peoples – the ‘Two-State Solution’ – provides the overarching principle for the Israeli-Palestinian political process;
Both parties reiterate their commitment to the existing agreements – including the Madrid Process, the Oslo Agreements, and the Roadmap – that anchor the process whose objective is to end Israel’s control over the Palestinian population while addressing its security concerns;
The systematic build-up of powers and capacities of the PA in the West Bank will continue. Its responsibilities and territorial scope will be according to the Interim Agreement and systematically expanded;
When conditions ripen, the PA will become a state via an Israeli-Palestinian agreement or through Israeli or US recognition in its new political status;
The Chairman of the PA will adjust the constitutional structure of the PA in the West Bank and establish new laws for elections of the legislative and executive bodies for the West Bank. Israel will allow the PA to hold elections according to the new laws in the West Bank and East Jerusalem to establish a temporary representative body for the West Bank until the conflict with Hamas is resolved;
Israel will freeze the building of outposts and expansion of existing settlements;
The US could provide a political horizon if one is required (similar to the Clinton Ideas, the Roadmap or the Bush Rose Garden Speech);
Permanent Status will be shaped through a series of agreements on the outstanding issues (economy, security, water etc) between Israel and the future Palestinian state. While any issues affecting the entire Palestinian people will be dealt with by Israel and the PLO, the Palestinian state will begin to dissolve the refugee issue within the Palestinian state.
